LETTER FROM SÃO PAULO
It's one of the most important elections to be held in 2024, yet it still flies under the radar: On October 6, over 150 million Brazilians will vote to elect officials for the 5,500 municipalities in the vast country, and a mid-term test for the left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The major battle will take place in São Paulo. The megalopolis is Brazil's economic capital and the largest city in the southern hemisphere, with 11.4 million residents (double when counting the outskirts), 34,000 cabs, 400 helicopters and 700 pizzas eaten every minute. From the imposing Matarazzo building, its mayor controls a budget of €20 billion and an army of 125,000 civil servants.
In "Sampa," the left is hoping to unseat the current right-wing mayor, Ricardo Nunes, from the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). Since the return of democracy, the Workers' Party (PT) has governed the city several times, and Lula won the 2022 presidential election with 53.5% of the vote against Jair Bolsonaro (compared with 50.9% nationally). The conditions, therefore, seem favorable.
The left in São Paulo has its hopes pinned on Guilherme Boulos. At 41, the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) MP and former leader of the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST) is anything but a novice. In the 2020 municipal elections, he surprised everyone by securing 40% of the votes in the second round against incumbent mayor Bruno Covas. With his beard, wit and oratory talents, many see him as a worthy successor to Lula.
By contrast, Nunes, 56, is simultaneously a controversial and little-known figure in his own city. An entrepreneur devoid of any charisma, involved in multiple cases of misappropriation of public funds, he succeeded to Mayor Covas, who died of cancer in 2021, after serving as deputy mayor. His administration has since seen a surge in insecurity and homelessness. Only 17% of São Paulo's residents have a positive opinion of his actions.
An irresistible alliance
With nine months to go, Boulos is understandably in the lead, with around 30% of voting intentions according to polling institutes, compared to 25% for Nunes. The other candidates, such as centrist MP Tabata Amaral, radical Bolsonarist and former environment minister Ricardo Salles and libertarian Kim Kataguiri, failed to cross the 10% threshold.
Lula, 78, has spared no effort to support his "protégé" and potential "successor." He instructed São Paulo's PT party to support the young socialist in the first round and, for the first time in 40 years, will not field any candidates in the municipal election. The president plans to appear in a series of rallies alongside Boulos.
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