Edginess and a reluctance to rattle Russia's cage in former Soviet republics

Russia's takeover of the Crimean peninsula has drawn condemnation from the west, but reaction has been more varied in the 14 former Soviet republics in Russia's "near abroad". Many have played a balancing act between Russia and the west, and almost all have significant Russian-speaking populations – like the one that served as a justification for Moscow's intervention in Crimea.

Azerbaijan

The oil-rich country in the South Caucasus has carefully played the United States and Russia off against each other, previously hosting a Russian radar base and American troops facilitating the transit of goods to Afghanistan. "It happened in South Caucasus and it's happening now in Ukraine, it's sort of the Soviet Union coming back," said Emin Milli, a journalist and activist in Baku. "This is what we feel in Azerbaijan, whether you're in government or civil society."

Georgia

Reaction has perhaps been strongest in Georgia, which lost about 20% of its territory when Russia cemented its control of two breakaway republics in the 2008 war. "What you hear a lot is that Russia is repeating in Ukraine what they did to Georgia in 2008," said Koba Turmanidze, president of the CRRC Georgia research centre. "The government is trying to be diplomatic … because they came to power promising to improve relations with Russia and negotiate a deal over the territories they took from us."

Kazakhstan

A rising oil-and-gas power and the most influential country in central Asia, sparsely populated Kazakhstan is one of only two full members of Putin's customs union and hosts Russia's Baikonur Cosmodrome. Nargis Kassenova, director of the Central Asian Studies Center at KIMEP University, said: "There is a considerable chunk of the population whose opinions are formed by Russian media, and there are increasingly vocal patriotic and liberal community that are getting more and more upset with Russian politics and policies."

Armenia

In 2013, Armenia declined an EU association agreement similar to the one offered to Ukraine and began moving towards membership of Russia's customs union. "Anti-Russian people have criticised [Moscow's takeover]; pro-Russian people have mostly kept silent," said musician Artyom Babayan. "Neutral people have mostly just drawn their own conclusions about what lessons Armenia should learn."

Kyrgyzstan

A revolution in impoverished, mountainous Kyrgyzstan in 2010 brought in a regime which voted decisively to close the US airbase at Manas, the main transport hub for the war in Afghanistan, in 2014. "We can imagine very vividly how the Russian airbase in Kant [in Kyrgyzstan] could be used to land paratroopers to 'restore constitutional order' at the behest of an ousted kleptocrat," said Edil Baisalov, a Bishkek-based political analyst. "But most Kyrgyz, including most of the political class, view the world through the prism of the dichotomy of good Russia versus evil America."

Uzbekistan

The US leased an airbase there until strong-arm president Islam Karimov, who has ruled the country since 1989, ended the arrangement in 2005 in an apparent move to improve relations with Russia and China. "Officials in Tashkent are seriously worried about the domino-effect consequences from an unbound Russia: in the minds of security-freak Uzbek officials, the fall of Ukraine will inevitably lead to the fall of Uzbekistan," said Alisher Khamidov, a researcher on central Asian affairs. "After Ukraine, Uzbekistan will move to beef up its military and build even closer military partnerships with China and the west."

Tajikistan

Located on the border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan is the former republic most dependent on remittances, with half its GDP coming from Tajik citizens working in Russia. "All the countries in the former Soviet Union are on their guard; they understand that the strategy used in Ukraine, Ossetia, and Abkhazia could be used against them," said Parviz Mullodzhanov, a political analyst in Dushanbe. But the majority of the population doesn't criticise the intervention in Crimea, he added.

Estonia

Estonia joined the EU and Nato in 2004 and has had frequent political clashes with Russia, including over the removal of a Soviet-era war monument in Tallinn. "People fear that Russia could use these methods against Estonia although we are members of Nato," said Silver Meikar, of the Institute of Digital Rights. "People living near the Russian border watch the Russian news, and then when they talk to another Estonian they have a very different understanding of what's going on in Ukraine … and it's because of the propaganda war."

Belarus

Often called the last dictatorship in Europe, Belarus has not seen many of the market reforms and investment that many other former Soviet republics have, and its strongman leader Alexander Lukashenko is a persona non grata in Europe and a firm ally of Putin. "Speaking selfishly, a Russian Crimea is more preferable and comfortable as a vacation destination for Belarusians, but they see Hitler in Putin's methods," said photographer Andrei Dubinin. "If it wanted to, the Kremlin wouldn't have much trouble joining the whole country to Russia with economic and political methods."

Lithuania

Lithuania joined the EU and Nato in 2004 but retains a sizable population of ethnic Russians. "Most people know there is a small chance for something similar to happen here, but the Russian minority is too small here," said Jonas Bidva, a logistics manager in Vilnius. "Latvia and Estonia would be more on the radar. But the majority of the people do not believe that Nato or EU would do anything to defend us if it happened in the Baltics."

Moldova

Russia has propped up Moldova's breakaway republic of Transnistria, but the country has had mixed relations with Moscow. About 1 million Moldovans work in Russia and half as many work in the EU. "Part of the population is more inclined toward EU, and it considers this to be Russian imperial expansion," said Tatyana Nita, international secretary for Moldova's Social Democratic party. "But others consider Russia to be a superpower that supports Moldova and other former Soviet republics, and that Europe wants to get revenge on Russia through economic ties with other former Soviet republics, like Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine."